Elect Dave Welling · Mayor of Carling
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Research

Check every number yourself.

Nothing here is an allegation. Every figure below is quoted from an agenda, minutes, an agreement, a by-law, a document obtained by freedom of information request, an audited financial statement, or an email from the municipalities themselves. Where a number can be read two ways, both readings are shown.

Nine years of the same result

From Carling's own audited statements. Every one of the last nine years ended in a surplus, never a deficit. Seven of those nine years beat the budgeted figure — in 2024, by nearly three times. Carling keeps taking in more than it needs.

YearTaxationTotal revenueSpendingBudgeted surplusActual surplusAccumulated surplus
2017$4,338,350$5,847,735$4,898,175$396,078$949,560$9,636,546
2018$4,751,844$7,461,239$5,089,357$882,029$2,371,882$12,008,428
2019$5,069,068$7,949,628$5,347,508$2,404,930$2,602,120$14,610,548
2020$5,551,266$6,977,474$5,572,740$3,794,328$1,404,734$16,015,282
2021$5,552,944$7,375,495$5,796,296$3,958,559$1,579,199$17,594,481
2022$5,792,047$10,941,719$6,139,882$4,282,281$4,801,837$21,780,763
2023$6,106,742$8,097,504$7,164,572$901,880$932,932$22,713,695
2024$6,456,014$9,381,331$7,304,825$727,657$2,076,506$25,780,719
2025$6,637,257$9,809,437$7,768,672$1,306,223$2,040,765$29,079,775

2022 restated for the asset retirement obligation standard. 2024 and 2025 actual surpluses exclude the share of the Rec Centre partnership, which the statements report separately.

Budgeted Surplus is the accrual-basis figure disclosed in each year's own audited financial statements (Note 11/12 "Budget" reconciliation) — not the Council-approved cash budget, which is legally required to balance to zero every year.

Where the money comes from

The common rebuttal is that a surplus is really grant money. In 2025 it was not: taxation was two thirds of all revenue.

Taxation$6,637,257 · 67.7%
Government grants$2,156,833 · 22.0%
User fees$389,859 · 4.0%
Investment income$258,772 · 2.6%
Other$366,716 · 3.7%

Why you will see two rates

Both are correct. They measure different things, so this site names which is which every time.

Annual surplus on Carling's own operations$2,040,765
Share of the Rec Centre partnership — an accounting entry, no cash collected$1,258,291
Growth in accumulated surplus$3,299,056

20.8% is the surplus on Carling's own operations — the honest answer to "how much of my tax money was left over". 29.8% is the provincial FIR basis, and it is the only basis on which all 28 townships can be compared. On either measure Carling is first of 28, against a median of 6.6%.

Compared to 27 similar townships

All figures 2024, the newest year every town has filed with the province. The comparison set is townships of 750 to 2,250 people that do not charge for water or sewer. Whitestone and McKellar are Carling's closest neighbours and qualify on their own.

Surplus rate, FIR basis
29.6%
1st of 28. Median 6.6%.
Wear on roads and buildings
37.4%
2nd newest of 28. Median 54.6%.
Cash with no plan
4.2×
the median township's $1,815,376.
Savings against debt
573%
Healthy is anything over 100%.

Carling passes all three of the province's financial health checks in the safest zone. Those checks were built to catch a town that saves too little. Nothing in them flags a town that collects too much.

The repair bill, in the Township's own words

The usual answer to a large surplus is that a repair bill is coming. Carling has that bill costed, by its own consultants, in the fourth revision of its Asset Management Plan, prepared by TULLOCH Engineering — a ten-year plan for 2024 to 2033, dated August 25, 2025. It is worth reading, because it does not say what the surplus implies it says.

Whole plan needs, per year
$1.1M
Average annual capital need under the strategy the plan itself recommends. Carling holds $29.1 million.
Worst shortfall year, 2032
$1,381,190
A single-year gap, the largest in the decade — and it lands in 2032, just past the term being elected now.
Every other gap year, combined
$618,520
2028, 2029 and 2033 together. The entire ten-year shortfall is under $2 million — though the plan warns each unmet year carries into the next.
Everything the Township owns
$49M
Total replacement value of every road, building, vehicle, ramp and the Dillon Road bridge. The savings would replace three fifths of the township.

So the money is not being held back for a coming crisis; the plan is explicit that average annual need sits inside what Carling has historically been able to spend. Here is what is happening to the assets in the meantime.

01
Roads are below the Township's own target

Average road condition is 5.34 out of 10, against the target of 6 or greater the Township set for itself. Thirty-five of the 109 segments rate 5 or below — poor, by the plan’s own scale. Gravel roads average 4.24. Those ratings come from the 2021 Road Needs Study, carried forward. Roads are $36.16 million of the $49 million portfolio — roughly three quarters of everything the Township owns.

02
Two boat ramps rated "Replace"

Buildings are mostly in good shape, with two exceptions: the Sawdust Bay and Pengally Bay boat ramps, both rated for replacement. On a township of this shape, water access is not an amenity.

03
Fire trucks and heavy equipment rated "Poor"

Of sixteen vehicles, only two — both 2022 models — are rated "Good." Older fire apparatus and heavy equipment are rated "Poor" or for replacement. Seventy-six of 104 equipment items are flagged for replacement within the decade.

04
One bridge, one lane, priced but not scheduled

Carling owns exactly one bridge — Dillon Road — and it carries a single lane of travel. The plan rates it Good overall with its seals Poor, schedules joint and barrier work for 2029 on the assumption a grant covers two thirds, and states that full replacement is not needed this decade. It also prices every bridge replacement as a two-lane structure, calling that an improvement to the level of service. So the two-lane crossing is costed in the Township’s own plan and scheduled nowhere in it. Anyone who plows it in February or meets oncoming traffic on it in July can say why that matters.

05
Ten years of growth, zero years of added service

The plan records a 33 per cent population increase between the 2016 and 2021 censuses — 366 more people — and then concludes the increase is “not considered significant in terms of driving new infrastructure needs,” assuming service levels need not rise at all for ten years. That assumption is doing quiet work: it is what allows a ten-year plan to hold steady while the community using the roads, ramps and hall keeps getting larger.

06
The recommended plan accepts decline

The strategy council is asked to adopt conserves money by accepting sub-target condition on roads carrying under 100 vehicles a day, letting non-critical equipment lapse out of service, and decommissioning underused facilities rather than replacing them. The question that belongs in public: was any of that ever put to the residents on those roads, or does it exist only inside a planning document?

07
Council is asked to consider tax increases and new fees

The financing levers put in front of council include tax increases, new or expanded user fees, fundraising, reserve draws and debt. Grant funding beyond the existing $100,000 a year for roads is described in the plan as "unpredictable." That leaves three honest answers — raise taxes, borrow, or cut service — and every candidate should have to name theirs.

08
The model's own assumptions are unverified

The condition ratings date from 2021 and a 2026 Roads Needs Study is planned to validate the deterioration rates the whole model rests on. Every gap figure above is only as good as those assumptions — which is an argument for reading the plan every year, not for ignoring it.

Read together, the two documents say something simple. The Township is holding $29.1 million, and its own plan needs $1.1 million a year. Meanwhile the roads sit below the standard council set, two ramps are rated for replacement, and the recommended strategy is to let the quiet roads get worse. The one real pressure point, 2032, arrives after the term being elected now — which is exactly why it is being left alone. The money is not the constraint. The decision is.

What it costs to run a township of 1,491

Salaries over $100,000 are published every year by the province under the Public Sector Salary Disclosure Act. These are the 2025 figures, as disclosed. Carling has 1,491 permanent residents in the 2021 census, and a much larger seasonal population, as its neighbours do.

MunicipalityTop administratorOn listTotal disclosed
Township of Carling$206,6784$614,042
Town of Parry Sound$203,91617$2,262,699
Municipality of McDougall$189,6258$1,038,431
Township of The Archipelago$180,91313$1,811,265
Township of Lake of Bays$149,9919$1,394,657
Township of McKellar$142,8134$511,013

Ontario Sunshine List 2025. McKellar's senior role is titled Clerk/Administrator. Municipalities shown are Carling's regional neighbours and the comparators in its own provincial filings. Larger municipalities in the wider district — Seguin, Muskoka Lakes and Bracebridge among them — pay more in absolute terms; the comparison here is to townships of Carling's own size.

01
Three jobs you never combine, held by one person

The Treasurer prepares and reports the money. The Clerk keeps the record of what Council decided. The CAO runs the administration that both of them report on. Separating them is the basic control every municipality relies on, because each role is the check on the others. In Carling all three are one position, so there is no independent check on the money, the record, or the administration — and a records request about a decision produces nothing, because the same office decides what is retained. Every peer municipality on this list keeps the Clerk and Treasurer separate.

02
Paid above much larger neighbours

McKellar is the closest match Carling has — 1,419 residents to Carling's 1,491 in the same provincial filings, and four staff on the list, same as Carling. Its senior administrator is paid $63,865 less. The Town of Parry Sound, more than four times Carling's size with 17 staff on the list, also pays less than Carling does.

03
General government costs more than the dump

In the 2026 budget, general government runs about $375 per household — more than waste management, parks, building and by-law enforcement combined. With four staff on the disclosure list, a line-by-line breakdown is a reasonable thing to ask for.

The records that do not exist

This is why so many questions here end in "no record found". It is not an accusation of hiding anything. It is the Township's own policy, described by its own CAO in writing.

01
Emails are not kept

Township emails are treated as transient documents under its own records retention by-law, so there is nothing to produce in answer to a records request about how a decision was reached.

02
Updates are verbal

Board and committee information reaches Council through spoken updates during the meeting. A verbal update leaves no document behind, and the recording of it is deleted after 30 days.

03
So the cost overrun has no paper trail

Asked whether Council knew of the September 2022 cost report before the March 2025 guarantee vote, the CAO's answer is that members updated Council verbally, and that this is why the project moved sites. No minute, report or vote records any of it.

"Our Emails etc are consider transient documents are not retained per the Townships record retention bylaw and thus would not have anything to provide."

CAO / Clerk, Township of Carling, in writing to a ratepayer, August 6, 2026

And how your councillor voted is not written down either

Not an allegation. It is Carling's own Procedure By-law 2019-48, passed December 10, 2019, read together with the Township's practice of deleting meeting recordings after thirty days.

01
Dissent is not recorded unless asked for

Section 13.19 is titled "Dissenting Votes Not Recorded": the Clerk shall not note dissenting votes in the minutes unless a member of Council has requested a recorded vote. No request, no record of who objected.

02
Names appear only on a recorded vote

Sections 13.14 and 13.16: a recorded vote happens only when a member calls for one, and only then are the names of those in support and those opposed entered in the minutes. Otherwise the entry reads "Carried" and nothing else.

03
The minutes are the only permanent record

Section 15.1 requires minutes "without note or comment", and section 4.7 bars anyone from recording a meeting without the permission of the Clerk and the Mayor. The Township's own recordings come down after thirty days.

04
Staying silent counts as voting no

Section 13.8 requires every member present to vote, and 13.9, "Abstained Vote Counts Against", deems a member who declines or abstains, absent a declared pecuniary interest, to have voted against the motion. Residents still cannot see it happen.

"The Clerk shall not note dissenting votes in the Minutes unless a request has been made by a member of Council for a recorded vote."

Township of Carling Procedure By-law 2019-48, section 13.19
The fix

Amend the Procedure By-law so every vote on a by-law is a recorded vote, and keep the meeting recordings instead of deleting them. Both are within Council's own power, cost nothing, and need no one's permission but Council's.

The Rec Centre partnership: what our guarantee is exposed to

01
No paper trail for the site switch

From 2019 to late 2023 the project was designed, approved and ICIP funded to be built at 36 Smith Crescent. No agenda, minute or Board record found names who proposed moving it, when, or records a vote. Where is the public record?

02
$32M cap, and no current number

Canada and Ontario funded on the $32 million budget and reuse of the existing building. By September 2022 the Board's own report to the ministry priced it at $43,186,000, with construction 2% complete. The audited statements show $29.4M spent by December 31, 2025 and $10.7M still owed under signed contracts, against a $39.5M budget. Eight months into 2026, the newest financial report the Board has made public covers March 31, 2026 — and it was not tabled until July 8. Nothing has been published for April through July.

03
Borrowing was never part of the deal

The 2021 agreement gave the Board no authority to borrow. A February 2024 amendment created the $13.5M facility. Five of six municipalities signed it; McKellar did not.

04
Filing deadlines nobody meets

The bank's covenant requires audited statements within 180 days of year-end — June 29, 2026. The Centre's 2025 statements carry a July 8 auditor's date but did not reach the Board or the Town of Parry Sound until August 17, seven weeks past the deadline. Every partner must consolidate the Centre into its own books, so no municipality meets its filing deadlines, to its ratepayers or the province.

Full detail on the qualified audit opinions, the line-of-credit discrepancy and the fundraising committee's resignation is in the research file, available on request.

Sources

1Ontario Financial Information Return database, 2024 filings for Carling and all 27 comparison townships. efis.fma.csc.gov.on.ca/fir
2Township of Carling audited financial statements, 2022 through 2025. The 2025 statements carry an auditor's report dated July 24, 2026.
3Township of Carling by-law authorizing the guarantee, and the Bank of Nova Scotia letter loan agreement, in Carling's own March 25, 2025 agenda package.
4West Parry Sound Recreation and Cultural Centre Joint Municipal Service Board agreement, September 10, 2021, and Amendment #1, February 14, 2024.
5Board audited financial statements and monthly financial reports, and the federal infrastructure programme progress report obtained by freedom of information request.
6Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing financial performance indicators; Municipal Act, 2001, sections 290 and 295(1); Township of Carling posted waste site hours.
7Township of Carling Procedure By-law 2019-48, passed December 10, 2019, sections 4.7, 13.8, 13.9, 13.14, 13.16, 13.19 and 15.1. carling.ca/wp-content/uploads/14a-Procedure-by-law-2019-48.pdf

Where a Township employee is referred to, it is by title only, and only where the document itself is the source. The full research file, with the exact quoted passage behind every claim, is available on request.

Elect Dave Welling · Mayor of Carling
davewelling.ca · 416-931-4999
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© 2026 The Campaign to Elect Dave Welling, Mayor of Carling
Vote online or by phone · Oct. 14–26, 2026 · closes 8 p.m. Oct. 26
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